Heat from the sun triggers earthquake activity on Earth

When the ground shakes violently, entire cities can crumble within minutes. Homes, hospitals, roads, and lives can vanish suddenly. Despite advances in technology, predicting when earthquakes will occur remains challenging. But scientists have recently discovered an unexpected clue that might help improve forecasts: the sun’s heat.

Scientists understand the basics of earthquakes. The Earth’s crust consists of large tectonic plates, massive slabs of rock moving slowly but constantly. When these plates rub against each other, pressure builds up. Eventually, this pressure releases suddenly, causing an earthquake. This explains how earthquakes happen, but predicting exactly when they will strike is still incredibly difficult.

Accurate predictions are vital, especially considering recent devastating earthquakes. In 2011, Japan experienced a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, which triggered a tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, killing over 18,000 people.

Similarly, earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Turkey and Syria (2023), and the Indian Ocean (2004) caused catastrophic damage. Improved forecasting could save thousands of lives by allowing timely evacuations and better preparation.

Recently, researchers have begun looking beyond Earth itself to find factors influencing earthquakes. Some studies suggest gravitational forces from the moon or electromagnetic effects from the sun might affect the Earth’s crust. Now, new research points directly at the sun, particularly its heat, as a possible factor in triggering earthquakes.

Scientists from Japan’s University of Tsukuba recently studied how solar activity, like sunspots, might affect earthquakes. Their findings, published in the scientific journal Chaos, reveal surprising connections between solar heat, Earth's temperature, and seismic activity.

Sunspots are dark patches on the sun caused by strong magnetic activity. During periods of increased sunspots, the sun emits slightly more heat. While the change in temperature on Earth is small, only about 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius, scientists believe it may still affect the planet’s crust, especially at shallow depths.

"Solar heat drives atmospheric temperature changes, which in turn can affect things like rock properties and underground water movement," said Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha, a researcher involved in the study. He explained, "Such fluctuations can make rocks more brittle and prone to fracturing, for example—and changes in rainfall and snowmelt can alter the pressure on tectonic plate boundaries."

While solar heat may not directly cause earthquakes, it appears to play a supporting role by affecting conditions in Earth’s crust. This makes it an intriguing factor for scientists working on earthquake forecasting.

To test their theory, the scientists used advanced mathematical models and computer simulations. They analyzed records of past earthquakes, sunspot activity, and changes in Earth’s surface temperature. Their results showed that including solar heat and temperature data improved earthquake forecasting, especially for shallow quakes.

"That makes sense," Saldanha noted, "since heat and water mostly affect the upper layers of the Earth's crust."

Deeper earthquakes, originating from within the Earth’s mantle, showed little connection to solar heat. But shallow earthquakes—which can be extremely destructive—appeared influenced by slight temperature shifts. The improved accuracy of forecasts, even small, can significantly help communities better prepare for potential disasters.

“It’s an exciting direction," said Saldanha. "We hope our study sheds some light on the bigger picture of what triggers earthquakes."

Though this research is promising, earthquake prediction remains challenging. Seismologists—the scientists who study earthquakes—use many factors to estimate earthquake risk. They examine historical earthquake patterns, geological records, and aftershock sequences. However, no method yet can reliably pinpoint exactly when and where earthquakes will strike.

The complexity of the Earth adds to this difficulty. The planet’s interior is a constantly shifting landscape of molten rock and solid crust, influenced by internal pressures, water movements, and external gravitational forces. Each factor adds uncertainty to predictions.

The potential connection between solar heat and earthquakes adds yet another layer of complexity. But it also provides scientists with a valuable new factor to consider when creating prediction models.

If future studies confirm solar heat’s role in seismic activity, earthquake forecasting could become more accurate. Even minor improvements in predicting earthquakes can drastically reduce damage and loss of life. Communities might have hours, days, or even weeks of warning to evacuate and secure critical infrastructure.

Earthquakes often trigger secondary disasters such as tsunamis, landslides, and infrastructure failures. Predicting these earthquakes earlier and more accurately can help emergency services prepare better response plans. More accurate forecasting would also reduce economic damages, which often stretch into billions of dollars, and help communities recover faster.

Despite these promising findings, more research is necessary. Scientists must further investigate how solar activity affects the Earth’s crust, especially at different depths. Expanding studies to include various regions worldwide will also help confirm the reliability of these findings.

Researchers at the University of Tsukuba and Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology continue to refine their models. They aim to integrate solar activity predictions into detailed Earth temperature models. If successful, this could significantly improve earthquake forecasting.

“While these factors may not be the main drivers of earthquakes," Saldanha added, "they could still be playing a role that can help to predict seismic activity.”

As research progresses, scientists hope to uncover more hidden connections between Earth and space. With each discovery, communities around the world gain valuable tools to protect themselves from future earthquakes. This new understanding could make the difference between tragedy and safety when the ground next begins to tremble.

Note: The article above provided above by The Brighter Side of News.

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