Can Faith Kipyegon or any female runner break the four-minute mile?

In 1954, Roger Bannister became the first person to run a mile in under four minutes, a feat long considered impossible. Shortly afterward, Diane Leather achieved a similar breakthrough for women, running the mile in under five minutes.

Seven decades later, Kenyan runner, Faith Kipyegon holds the women’s mile record at 4:07.64, raising the question: could she, or another elite female runner, break the four-minute mile with optimized aerodynamic drafting?

Drafting, a technique where runners position themselves behind others to reduce air resistance, has long been used in endurance sports. When an athlete runs alone, air molecules push against them, creating drag. By running behind pacers, athletes reduce the force acting against them, lowering the energy required to maintain speed.

When Bannister broke the four-minute mile, he drafted behind pacers for over 80% of the race. In contrast, Kipyegon’s record-setting run involved drafting for only 56% of the race, and her pacers were not optimally positioned.

Given her performance, researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder hypothesized that with ideal pacing and formation, she could reduce her energy expenditure enough to break the four-minute barrier.

Aerodynamic resistance can be calculated using the equation:

Faero = 1/2 Af Cd 𝜌 v^2

where Faero represents aerodynamic drag force, Af is the runner’s frontal area, Cd is the coefficient of drag, 𝜌 is air density, and v is running speed.

Based on this formula, at a four-minute-mile pace, Bannister faced an aerodynamic drag force of about 12.58 newtons, or 1.83% of his body weight. Kipyegon, being smaller, faced less absolute drag—about 8.89 newtons—but this force represented 2.16% of her body weight due to her higher surface area-to-volume ratio.

Because a runner’s energy output is proportional to the force they must overcome, drag plays a significant role in performance. Studies show that overcoming air resistance accounts for about 13.5% of Kipyegon’s total metabolic energy expenditure at her record pace.

Research in wind tunnels and computational simulations suggests that effective drafting can reduce this resistance by as much as 76%, translating to substantial performance gains.

The study, led by Rodger Kram and his colleagues, analyzed footage from Kipyegon’s record run and simulated optimized pacing scenarios. They found that if she had properly spaced pacers who rotated throughout the race, she could significantly reduce the energy required to maintain her pace. Under these conditions, they calculated a projected finish time of 3:59.37—the exact time Bannister ran in 1954.

Shalaya Kipp, an Olympic middle-distance runner and co-author of the study, expressed excitement about the findings. “It’s extremely exciting that we are now talking about, and studying, the limits of female human performance, too,” she said.

Kram, who has previously studied the factors behind breaking the two-hour marathon, believes that the right conditions, including optimal pacing, could help Kipyegon make history.

In elite running, every second counts. The success of projects like Nike’s Breaking2 marathon attempt demonstrates the power of strategic pacing and aerodynamic assistance. Kram’s team has sent their findings to Kipyegon and her sponsors, suggesting that a similar staged race could allow her to break the four-minute barrier.

Edson Soares da Silva, the study’s lead author, noted that these findings are not just for elite runners. “Anyone from top elite to lower-level runners can benefit from adopting the optimal drafting formation for as much of their race as they can,” he said.

As the science of running continues to advance, female athletes are poised to reach new milestones. If Kipyegon or another runner takes on the challenge, history could soon witness the first woman breaking the four-minute mile, proving once again that human limits are meant to be redefined.

The study findings are published in the journal Royal Society Open Science.

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