Body shape may predict risk of cardiovascular disease, study finds

Rising rates of heart disease are claiming more lives each year, and researchers now believe a lesser-known body measure may offer clues about your future heart health. In recent findings from a large study of adults over age 45, a higher Body Roundness Index (BRI) over six years was closely tied to a greater risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This connection held even after accounting for blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol, and other known health factors.

Heart disease continues to be the number one cause of death worldwide. According to the most recent update from the American Heart Association, close to 20 million people die each year from cardiovascular disease. That number has grown dramatically—from 12.4 million in 1990 to 19.8 million in 2022. In China, deaths from cardiovascular disease rose by nearly 60% between 1990 and 2016, and by 2010, heart-related illnesses made up 40% of all deaths in the country.

While many factors contribute to heart disease, obesity plays a key role. And among the types of obesity, abdominal obesity—fat stored around the stomach—has emerged as a stronger predictor of heart disease risk than general obesity, which is often measured by Body Mass Index (BMI).

Unlike BMI, which only compares weight to height, BRI takes into account waist size and height to describe body shape. It reflects how much fat is stored in the abdomen and around internal organs, a type of fat called visceral fat. This fat is known to be more dangerous than fat stored in other areas of the body.

Developed in 2013, BRI has already been linked in past research to insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome—two conditions closely tied to heart problems. Now, new findings suggest that tracking BRI over time, rather than using it as a one-time snapshot, offers valuable insight into future heart disease risk.

“This is the first large study to evaluate BRI over time and how it may be associated with the incidence of cardiovascular disease among middle-aged and older Chinese adults,” said Dr. Yun Qian, senior author and researcher at Nanjing Medical University’s Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

To better understand the connection between body shape and heart disease, researchers turned to the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a nationwide effort that followed nearly 10,000 people over six years. These adults, age 45 and older, were chosen from 150 counties across 28 provinces in China. None had been diagnosed with heart disease at the beginning of the study, which began in 2011.

Medical staff visited participants at home to measure waist circumference and height. These numbers were used to calculate each person’s BRI. Blood pressure was also recorded after five minutes of rest, using an electronic monitor. Blood samples were collected at the start of the study and again two years later. These samples helped track cholesterol, glucose, and other markers of metabolic health.

Participants were also asked to report if they developed any major heart conditions, including heart attacks, strokes, heart failure, angina, or coronary heart disease.

What set this study apart was its focus on trajectories—how BRI changed over time rather than just a single value. Researchers grouped participants into three categories based on how their BRI levels moved across the years:

People in the moderate and high BRI groups consistently showed higher BRI levels over time.

By the end of the study, 3,052 cardiovascular events and 894 cardiovascular-related deaths were recorded between 2017 and 2020. The results painted a clear picture: the more stable and higher the BRI over time, the greater the risk of heart disease.

Compared to those in the low-stable group, individuals in the moderate-stable group were 61% more likely to develop heart disease. Those in the high-stable group were 163% more likely.

These associations remained strong even after researchers adjusted for important factors like age, sex, medical history, and medication use. Even after including key health metrics such as blood sugar, cholesterol, and blood pressure, the link between BRI and heart disease stayed significant.

The rates of stroke and other cardiac events were also much higher among those in the moderate and high BRI groups.

“Our findings indicate that six years of moderate-to-high stable BRI appeared to increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, suggesting that BRI measurements may potentially be used as a predictive factor for cardiovascular disease incidence,” Dr. Qian explained.

She also noted that the reasons for this link may lie in how abdominal fat contributes to inflammation, insulin resistance, high cholesterol, and high blood pressure—all of which damage the heart over time.

While BMI is still commonly used in clinics and hospitals to assess weight status, it doesn’t provide information about fat distribution. BRI fills in this gap by focusing on central fat, which is more likely to impact heart health.

This study highlights how tracking BRI over time could become a helpful tool in identifying people at higher risk before symptoms appear. Health professionals might use BRI in routine check-ups to guide early interventions such as lifestyle changes or preventive treatments.

The researchers pointed out some limitations in their study. For one, all participants lived in China, so the findings may not apply directly to people in other countries. The six-year follow-up period may also be too short to capture the full effects of long-term changes in body shape. Additionally, most health outcomes were self-reported, which might introduce some reporting errors.

Still, the strength of the results suggests that BRI deserves more attention in the fight against heart disease.

Obesity, especially around the waist, is more than just a cosmetic concern. It’s a strong signal that your body may be heading toward trouble. As more people worldwide enter middle age and live longer lives, the need for better ways to predict heart disease risk will only grow.

Measuring and tracking body roundness may soon become a part of routine care—an easy and non-invasive way to monitor risk and guide early action. Though more research is needed to confirm how these findings can be applied in other countries or across longer periods, this study offers a valuable step forward in understanding the role of body shape in heart health.

Note: The article above provided above by The Brighter Side of News.

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